Oil prices made a modest recovery on Friday after four consecutive days of losses but were still set for their steepest weekly drop since late June. Market sentiment remains cautious as traders anticipate that OPEC+ could announce a significant production hike despite oversupply fears.
Brent crude futures inched up 0.3% to $64.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 0.3% to $60.67. Even with this slight rebound, Brent is on track for an 8.3% weekly loss and WTI for a 7.6% drop, reflecting heightened bearish pressure in the oil market. If the downtrend continues, Brent could close at its lowest level since late May, while WTI may fall to levels not seen since early May.
Reports suggest OPEC+ may agree to boost production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, tripling October’s planned increase. Analysts believe such a move, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia’s push to regain market share, could send oil prices lower, possibly testing support at $58.00 and even revisiting 2023 lows near $55.00.
Additional factors are weighing on crude, including weaker global refinery runs due to seasonal maintenance, slowing demand, and rising U.S. inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration confirmed a build-up in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate stocks last week as refinery activity and demand softened.
Market jitters are also amplified by broader economic concerns. Uncertainty around a potential U.S. government shutdown and the resumption of Kurdish oil exports from Iraq add downward pressure. Meanwhile, the Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers reaffirmed their commitment to tightening restrictions on Russian oil sales, targeting countries increasing imports from Moscow.
Overall, the oil market faces a fragile outlook. Unless demand picks up, rising supply and weakening fundamentals could push crude prices into further decline, keeping traders on edge as OPEC+ prepares its next move.