Doug Ford leads in Ontario election, but Trump's tariffs aren't first priority for voters: poll

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Doug Ford’s early election gamble seems to be paying off: With more than three weeks to go, polling shows that almost half of Ontario voters are seriously considering a vote for the Progressive Conservatives.

The new poll from Leger shows that 47 per cent of Ontarians say they’ve decided to vote — or are leaning towards voting — for Ford’s incumbent PCs. The Ontario Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, the former mayor of Mississauga, trail with the support of 23 per cent of Ontarians. The New Democrats, led by Merit Stiles, have just 17 per cent.

“While there’s some disagreement whether or not the tariffs were a good reason for a call, there doesn’t seem to be any particular political fallout for Premier Ford and the Progressive Conservatives for going ahead with the election now,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president of Leger’s Central Canada operations, in an interview.

When Ford called an election last week — about a year-and-a-half before the official election date — it was regarded as something of a gamble, which could have backfired on Ford. While Ford argued that he was seeking a new mandate to deal with tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, there were several reasons why it was politically advantageous timing: the two other major parties have new leaders, the Ontario PCs were in a decent fundraising position and the $200 cheques Ford promised are now arriving in mailboxes.

While the move still could backfire, things are looking fairly rosy for Ford’s PCs.

In fact, 46 per cent of Ontarians agree with the idea that a new mandate was needed to deal with Trump, compared to 39 per cent who disagree, and 15 per cent who say they don’t know. So far, a majority of Ontarians — 57 per cent — say they approve of how Ford is handling Trump.

His party has a slim majority of decided voters in the non-metro-Toronto areas of the GTA. It also enjoys a majority among those aged 55 and older. Even among those least likely to support the PCs, voters aged 18 to 34, his party’s support, at 37 per cent is higher than any demographic for any other party.

Broadly speaking, though, the election doesn’t seem to have wildly improved Ford’s approval rating. Only 16 per cent say that their view of Ford has improved since the election was called. Thirty-nine per cent say their view has stayed the same, while 37 per cent say that it has worsened. The trend is broadly similar among other party leaders: Fourteen per cent say their view of Crombie has improved, for example, while 40 per cent say it has stayed the same and 23 per cent say their view of her has worsened.

“When you step back strategically, that’s definitely not good enough for the opposition parties. They have to win weeks outright in order to start getting back into this race,” said Enns.

Ford’s popularity has dropped the most in southern Ontario, with 43 per cent of poll respondents in that region saying their view of him has worsened, followed closely by metro Toronto, where 40 per cent say the same. However, offsetting that slightly, 23 per cent of voters in other parts of the GTA say that their views have improved — the highest improvement metric of any region in Ontario for Ford. Interestingly, Crombie has also improved her popularity in that region, with 19 per cent saying their views of her have improved. Stiles’ personal popularity has grown the most in the Hamilton/Niagara region, with 13 per cent saying their views have improved.

There is, unsurprisingly, a major partisan split. Just three per cent of prospective PC voters say their view of Crombie has improved, while just four per cent of prospective Liberal voters say their view of Ford has improved, suggesting that there are not a lot of votes shifting between the political parties one week into the election.

Ford has cast the election as aimed at getting a strong mandate to deal with Trump. However, only 11 per cent of Ontarians list that as their primary concern. Eleven per cent also say housing affordability is their primary concern, 19 per cent identify the rising cost of living as their major concern and nine per cent point to doctor shortages.

“(The tariffs are) not the most important thing, personally for them. When they look at their household situation, I think they’re still very preoccupied with squaring the monthly budget,” said Enns. “But certainly the U.S. relationship is in the conversation. And I think that’s probably important for Premier Ford and the Progressive Conservatives.”

Ford, who has been in government since 2018, risks being blamed for the non-Trump priorities of Ontarians.

In the GTA — excluding metro Toronto — where Ford enjoys his highest rates of support, just six per cent of poll respondents identify U.S. trade issues as their major concern. They are, at 21 per cent, mostly concerned with the cost of living, housing (12 per cent) and taxation rates (12 per cent). It is in eastern Ontario where trade, at 18 per cent, is the largest concern — although, even then, it’s tied with doctor shortages and trailed closely with the cost of living, at 16 per cent.

Even when asked what their second-largest concern is, trade and tariffs barely register. While 18 per cent say the cost of living is their second-largest concern and 12 per cent say high taxes, only four per cent list trade as their second-largest.

“When you drill deeper, I think people struggle in terms of understanding, ‘What is this really going to mean for my household?'” said Enns.

The poll surveyed 1,004 Ontarians via an online panel between Jan. 31 and Feb. 2. The results have been weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the Ontarian population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 3.09 per cent, (19 times out of 20) for the Ontarian sample.